Lesson Report:
Title
From Factors to Indicators: Building Causal Chains of Democratization with Huntington
Synopsis: This session used Huntington’s framework to analyze how authoritarian regimes transition toward democracy. The emphasis was on developing analytical skills: distinguishing between factors (reasons/causal forces) and indicators (observable evidence), and linking them through step-by-step causal mechanisms. Students practiced constructing multi-step causal chains for economic growth and low international legitimacy leading to democratization, then mapped these chains into an essay structure.
Attendance
Absent: 6 students (Arsthan, Banu, Ijamal, Aziriyat, Muratbek, Nuri Islam)
Topics Covered (chronological)
– Warm-up: Huntington’s democratization factors (notebook write)
– Prompt: Choose one Huntington factor that moves a regime from authoritarian to democratic and, in your own words, explain how it works.
– Purpose: Surface initial causal ideas for use later in partner explanation and class analysis.
– Pair-share: Explaining a chosen factor
– Instructions: With a partner, explain your factor and why it is interesting/convincing.
– Student ideas heard:
– Role of international legitimacy and sanctions relief as incentives to democratize.
– Military relinquishing power and ruling party giving up monopoly control.
– Confusion clarified around the term coup d’état (pronunciation aside): a military seizure of power.
– Framing the course objective: Analysis over memorization
– Instructor emphasis: This is Introduction to Political Science; the goal is to move beyond listing facts to explaining why outcomes occur (causal reasoning).
– Core concept: Factor vs. Indicator
– Definitions:
– Factor: The reason a change occurs (e.g., economic growth; low international legitimacy).
– Indicator: Observable measures that show the factor or outcome exists (e.g., “prices stabilizedâ€� as evidence of lower inflation).
– Application factor selected: Economic growth as a driver of democratization.
– Activity: Indicators of economic growth (macro and lived)
– Macro indicators discussed:
– Public national debt level declines in published figures (e.g., $200B → $150B).
– GDP increases year-over-year (e.g., $5.0B → $5.8B).
– Inflation slows/stops: observed in stable prices of bread, restaurant items, and rents.
– Urbanization rates rise (greater % living in cities).
– Everyday/lived indicators:
– Construction boom (constant building activity and noise).
– Proliferation of new shops/restaurants/coffee houses (implies credit access and business confidence; stronger banking sector).
– Key takeaway: “Economic growthâ€� is abstract; you must cite observable evidence to claim it.
– Activity: Indicators the polity is “more democraticâ€�
– Instructions: With a partner, identify 1–2 indicators that the country is more democratic (not necessarily fully democratic).
– Indicators generated and grounded:
– Civil liberties increased (freedom of speech/assembly/protest). Evidence: fewer arrests/intimidation for protests; public criticism occurs without punishment.
– Electoral competition expanded. Evidence: ballot shows multiple parties/candidates; opposition occasionally wins; absence of intimidation at polling places; international observers permitted.
– Private property rights more secure. Lived evidence: fewer confiscation stories; successful businesses not arbitrarily seized; title deeds recognized and enforceable.
– Freer currency exchange. Lived evidence: legal, reliable currency exchange at banks/booths with passport; transparent rates; no or higher limits on conversion; no need for black-market exchanges.
– New factor introduced: International legitimacy
– Working definition: Recognition by other states/IOs that a government is entitled to rule and follows accepted norms.
– Focus for analysis: Low international legitimacy as a democratizing pressure.
– Activity: Indicators of low international legitimacy (scripted Aredos case)
– Scenario facts provided:
– UN publicly condemns Aredos for authoritarian practices (media broadcast).
– EU freezes European bank accounts of regime-aligned elites.
– Additional indicators elicited:
– Embassy expulsions/closures: news that multiple states removed Aredos’ embassies or refused to host them.
– Visa restrictions: citizens face difficulty obtaining visas abroad.
– IO pullout: UN/major INGOs close country offices or suspend programs.
– Media coverage as evidence: public, verifiable reports of condemnations and asset freezes.
– Causal chain workshop: From low legitimacy to democratization
– Starting chain (Aredos):
– UN condemnation + EU asset freezes → regime-aligned elites lose access to foreign assets → elites become unhappy with the president (loss of profit/security).
– Student-proposed intermediate pathways:
– Economic pathway to social pressure:
– Elites retrench → job losses and worse conditions for citizens → protests escalate → regime pressures to liberalize to restore stability and external ties.
– Elite-driven political pathway:
– Elites deploy remaining funds to back opposition (or a palace/military move) → leadership change conditioned on meeting international standards → adoption of democratic reforms to unfreeze assets and regain recognition.
– Additional factor layered by instructor: Costlier to maintain power (repression costs rise)
– Military dimension: Soldiers dislike repressing civilians; discontent rises, eroding generals’ confidence in the president.
– Net effect: The coalition sustaining authoritarian rule fractures (business elites + military no longer reliably aligned), increasing the incentive to make democratic concessions.
– Meta-point: Real transitions are multi-causal; each factor (economic growth, low legitimacy, rising costs of repression) has specific indicators and mechanisms.
– Translating analysis into essay structure
– Guidance:
– Each factor becomes a body paragraph claim.
– For each: list indicators (evidence) and trace mechanisms step-by-step to the outcome (more democracy).
– This charting process is the scaffold for the next seminar essay on political violence (when and why politics turns violent).
– Wrap-up and logistics
– Instructor will post next week’s reading over the weekend; midterm grades to be posted as well.
– Next Thursday’s seminar: use causal-chain charts to structure an analytical essay.
Actionable Items
Urgent (before next class)
– Post next week’s reading (seminar on political violence) to the course site.
– Publish midterm grades and notify students.
– Share a brief prompt/guide for Thursday’s seminar:
– What to bring (factor–indicator–mechanism chart).
– Required number of factors and indicators per claim.
– Expected length and structure (thesis + 2–3 body paragraphs using chains).
– Provide a one-page handout clarifying “factor vs. indicatorâ€� with examples used in class (GDP, inflation, ballots, observers, property rights, currency exchange).
Short-term (next week)
– Demonstrate transforming a causal diagram into an essay outline (thesis, topic sentences, evidence, warrants).
– Provide reputable data sources for indicators:
– Economic (World Bank WDI for GDP, inflation, debt).
– Political (Freedom House, V-Dem, OSCE/ODIHR reports).
– Clarify coup d’état terminology and typical mechanisms; distinguish coups, elite pacts, and negotiated transitions.
– Follow up with absent students (6) with a summary and the factor–indicator template.
Longer-term
– Create a repository of common indicators by theme (economy, elections, civil liberties, property rights, international legitimacy, coercion costs).
– Share an analytic rubric emphasizing causal explanation (not just description) and proper use of indicators.
– Plan a brief assessment/check-in on distinguishing factors from indicators and building multi-step causal chains.
Homework Instructions:
NO HOMEWORK
Justification: The instructor only referenced past homework (“what I asked you… to do for homework over the past two days�) and mentioned future materials without assigning them (“I’m going to post the reading for next week�), then ended class without giving new tasks (“That’s it for today… Until Tuesday… Enjoy your weekend.�).